Bitcoin's First Real Bull Market in Six Years? Technical and Fiscal Policy Signals Explained

#Bitcoin's First Real Bull Market in Six Years? Technical and Fiscal Policy Signals

Recently, Bitcoin's price has staged a strong rebound, with several technical indicators and macro policy signals undergoing important changes. Some market participants believe this could be the first signal of a genuinely real Bitcoin bull market in six years. This article examines the key developments from three dimensions: technical factors, macro factors, and market sentiment.

#1. Technicals: Breaking Key Moving Averages, Double Bottom Pattern Awaiting Confirmation

On the daily chart, Bitcoin has reclaimed the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, marking the first time it has recovered the 200-day moving average since prices fell from around $110,000 in October 2025. In technical analysis, the 200-day moving average is often viewed as an important dividing line for long-term trends, and reclaiming it is seen by some analysts as an initial sign of trend reversal.

In addition, some analysts point out that Bitcoin's daily chart may be forming an “Adam and Eve” double bottom structure. The pattern consists of a sharp bottom (Adam) and a rounded bottom (Eve); when the price breaks above the neckline between the two bottoms, it is typically considered a confirmation signal. The current price is already approaching that neckline area. If it breaks above it effectively, the bullish technical signal will strengthen further.

#2. Macro Factors: U.S. Treasury Bond-Buying Plan Could Be a Catalyst

Another important event this week is the potential action by the U.S. Treasury. There are reports that the Treasury is considering using roughly $1 trillion in funds from its Treasury General Account (TGA) to support purchases of long-term government bonds. Earlier, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had proposed a $40 billion bond buyback program. Some analysts believe this move is akin to “walking into a burning kitchen with a glass of water”—although limited in scale, it sends a “whatever it takes” signal to stabilize the bond market.

If cash is released through bond buybacks and other means, market liquidity could increase and yields could come under pressure, which is generally positive for risk assets including Bitcoin. Some argue that fiscal pressure could become the next major macro catalyst for Bitcoin, because Bitcoin is viewed as a hedge against fiat depreciation and fiscal imbalances.

#3. Market Sentiment and Cycle Views: The First “Real” Bull Market in Six Years?

Over the past week, market sentiment has shifted markedly. Previously, many participants expected Bitcoin to bottom in October, but now a growing number believe the bottom may already be in. Some analysts note that Bitcoin hit an all-time high in 2025 (around $125,000), but that move was driven more by ETF inflows and election-related trading and was not accompanied by a genuine economic expansion cycle, so it may have been only an “atypical” bull market. The current technical pattern and macro environment may be creating the conditions for the first truly cyclical bull market in six years.

From a longer-term perspective, the weekly chart shows strong upward momentum, and the monthly RSI has produced a bullish crossover after extremely oversold conditions—similar signals appeared when the market turned from bear to bull in 2023. In the short term, however, prices could still pull back, for example retesting the $70,000 area near the 200-day moving average, but that would not change the overall upward trend that most analysts point to.

#4. Risk Disclaimer

It must be emphasized that market forecasts are uncertain. For example, prediction market data shows Bitcoin still has about a 25% probability of first dropping to $50,000, while also having about a 25% probability of reaching $100,000 this year. Any technical analysis and macro reasoning does not constitute investment advice, and investors should make independent judgments based on their own risk tolerance.