PCE and Nvidia Earnings: Crypto Pullback Risk and Key Trading Zones

The crypto market has been volatile recently ahead of key macro data releases. Tomorrow, the US PCE inflation data (the Fed's preferred inflation gauge) and Nvidia earnings will be released. Market sentiment is cautious, and Bitcoin and altcoins could see a short-term pullback, possibly followed by a rebound. Below is a breakdown of key zones for major assets.

#Macro Backdrop: PCE and Nvidia Earnings

PCE is the inflation gauge the Fed watches most closely; its outcome will influence rate-cut expectations and thus risk assets.
Nvidia earnings are seen as a sentiment barometer for AI and tech stocks. Nvidia's stock has fallen for several sessions recently, and the market may have already priced in pessimistic expectations. If earnings are not bad, a short-covering rally could occur.
With both events converging, the crypto market could weaken in the near term to digest uncertainty, and then choose a direction based on the data.

#Bitcoin: Key Support and Resistance

Recently, Bitcoin saw a short-term bounce in the $78,400-$70,000 range, but the $83,000-$84,000 area above is a key resistance zone that could attract shorting. If it weakens further, watch the VWAP and bullish order block near $78,600 below, which could provide short-term support; if broken, the weekend low (unfilled) area has liquidity and could become a larger rebound zone.

On the technical side, USDT Dominance (USDT.D) is at its lowest since November 2023 and near major support. If it bounces, it typically corresponds to a crypto market pullback, so be alert to the risk of Bitcoin dropping toward the $50,000 area, though this would require a fast and strong rejection signal.

#Altcoins: Selected Trading Zones

Overall logic: Many altcoins are overbought after the recent rebound and could pull back to support before a second leg up. Focus on technical patterns and key moving averages.

Aptos (APT): Current price around $5.9; can try a long near $5.8 with a stop loss at $5.64-$5.65, targeting the 200-day moving average.
Beam: Small position long with a stop loss near $0.0014, as a catch-up play among altcoins.
TAO: Enter at market with a stop loss at $225 and targets at $268-$270, where weekly resistance, Fibonacci extensions, and other confluences align.
Hyperliquid (HYPE): Watch for a pullback opportunity after a breakout above $83.3. If it breaks out then retraces to around $80.38 (VWAP and 0.5 retracement), that can be considered bullish support, with upside targets at $86-$93.
Near (NEAR): Long zones at $1.86, and $1.812-$1.79 (near the 50-day moving average).

Other altcoins such as Virtual, Pingu, Arrow, Zcash, Pepe, Brett, and SUI are also waiting for pullback confirmation at their respective support zones; watch for technical rebound opportunities.

#Other Assets: US Stocks, Oil, and Individual Stocks

S&P 500 Index: Possible support rebound near 7,600 points.
Nasdaq: Missed the short opportunity recently; do not chase shorts.
Dow Jones: Shorted near 53,740 as planned and took profit.
Crude Oil: WTI has a reversal opportunity in the $81.2-$80.4 zone; technical indicators are oversold, watch for a rebound.
Nvidia: If it continues to fall before earnings, it could provide a long opportunity; expect a 7-10% rebound after earnings.
Intel: Pelosi disclosed a buy; watch for a small bounce at $79.6 and stronger support near $65 (near the 200-day moving average).
SpaceX: Holding long positions; support at $132.

#Risk Management and Strategy Summary

The market is in a choppy period ahead of the data, and both longs and shorts could get stopped out; it is recommended to manage position size. Wait for pullbacks to key support before entering, and avoid chasing highs. Set clear stop losses, such as Aptos at $5.64 and TAO at $225. Also watch changes in USDT Dominance; if it rebounds quickly, it could trigger a broad market pullback, so take profits in a timely manner.